2018/2022 Race Takes Shape: England Leads, Australia Pushing Hard

(WFI) With 300 days until the FIFA Executive Committee decision on the hosts of the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, the first edition of the World Football Insider Bid Power Index shows the relative strengths and weaknesses of the 10 bids.

England takes the early lead in the first edition of the WFI Bid Power Index. Russia is the nearest European challenger, but Australia is closer still and is the country to watch in the coming months as the race heads to a finish in December.

Across 10 categories, England scores 64 out of 100 possible points. Australia follows with 62, with Russia and Qatar tied on 61 and the US on 60.

Notching sub-60 scores are joint bids from Holland-Belgium and Spain-Portugal, while Japan and Korea are also off the pace. Indonesia lags well behind due to a plethora of issues and lingering doubts whether it can stay the course of the bid race.

Despite the widespread consensus that the World Cup will be awarded to Europe in 2018, FIFA is refusing to confirm that a deal is being negotiated that would reduce the field to European bids. In theory, this means that Australia, Japan and the USA are not ruled out of the running for 2018, though the suspicion is that they stand a better chance of staging the 2022 World Cup; Indonesia, Korea and Qatar are only bidding to host this edition.

The WFI Bid Power Index is the only regularly published review of World Cup bids that is based on expert analysis and first-hand contact with the bid nations, including interviews with bid leaders and information and figures from each of the bid launches. Detailed bid dossiers are due for submission to FIFA by May 14.

The rankings are not meant to predict the outcome of the FIFA vote on Dec. 2, 2010, but to show the merits and drawbacks of the bidding nations at regular intervals before the decision.

The 10 categories are: bid operations/leadership; wow factor and unique selling points; relations with FIFA Executive Committee members; cost and funding resources; government and public support; international PR; venue plans; security; transport and accommodation; and legacy.

World Football Insider - 2018/2022 World Cup Bid Power Index - Feb 2010
	Eng	Aus	Qat	Rus	USA	Spn-Ptg	Kor	Hol-Bel	Jap	Ind
Bid operation/leadership	6	6	6	6	6	4	5	5	4	3
Wow factor and USPs	8	8	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	5
Relation w/ FIFA members	6	5	6	7	7	8	6	5	5	4
Cost/funding resources	6	5	8	8	6	5	5	5	5	6
Government/public support	6	7	6	7	5	5	6	6	6	3
International PR	6	6	7	6	6	4	6	5	5	2
Venue plans	8	5	5	6	7	7	6	7	6	4
Security	6	6	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	3
Transport/Accommodation	7	7	5	4	8	7	6	7	6	4
Legacy	5	7	7	7	4	5	6	6	6	7
Bid Power Index Totals	64	62	61	61	60	56	56	56	53	41
(Note: individual scores out of 10 possible)

Bid Operations and Leadership
No bidding nation is leading the pack just yet. But some bids are getting in shape to reap the benefits in the coming months; England, Australia, Russia, Qatar and the US are level pegging in the rankings. England’s bid was knocked by criticism from FIFA vice president Jack Warner in the autumn but concerns over the bid structure have dissipated – for the time being – with David Triesman remaining in charge as chairman. Having survived recent calls for him to step down, he will need to show stronger leadership in the weeks ahead. Australia have had their own problems with the departure of key strategist Bonita Mersiades, but Football Federation Australia chairman Frank Lowy and CEO Ben Buckley appear to be steering Australia on a good course. Russia’s Vitaly Mutko and CEO Alexey Sorokin have strengthened their bid team with the high-profile signings of Markus Siegler, new international adviser Viacheslav Koloskov and former national team captain Alexey Smertin. The US bid led by Sunil Gulati and CEO David Downs have announced big-name recruits to the bid team, which includes former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, Major League Soccer Commissioner Don Garber and MLS founding investor Philip Anschutz. Qatar’s bid, spearheaded by chairman Sheikh Mohammed bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani and CEO Hassan al-Thawadi, is raising its profile at key events such as the Confederation of African Football congress. The other five bids for 2018 and 2022 have yet to impress; Indonesia’s low-key campaign was not helped by bid leader Nurdin Halid’s non-appearance at the FIFA Bidding Expo in Cape Town in December.

Wow Factor/Unique Selling Points
England and Australia get 8 points as both have the credentials to stage magnificent World Cups. England boasts some of the best stadia in Europe, a passionate fanbase and the capacity to put on a real party; Euro 96 was an important milestone, while the London 2012 Olympics will showcase what is possible. The unique selling points of the bid concept include the prospect of staging games at the iconic Wembley Stadium, Manchester United’s famed Old Trafford and maybe the 2012 Olympic Stadium, if Tottenham Hotspur’s stadium redevelopment plans fall through. Australia knows how to deliver spectacular, if the Sydney 2000 Olympics and the razzmatazz around its staging of domestic and international sports events is anything to go by. Qatar’s ambition to host the first World Cup in the Middle East is an important USP over its rivals but beyond that it lacks the wow factor. The other bids are marked down because they have so far yet to demonstrate compelling reasons for holding the World Cup.

Relations with FIFA Executive
The Iberian bid achieves the top score thanks to the strong links Spain and Portugal have with members of the FIFA executive, including UEFA president Michel Platini and those from Argentina and Brazil. Spanish Football Association president Angel Maria Villar sits on the committee and the bid’s co-leader Gilberto Madail, his counterpart at the Portuguese FA, has been a prominent presence at the recent Africa Cup of Nations and CAF congress. Russia’s Vitaly Mutko welcomed Sepp Blatter to Moscow recently and, together with the country’s leaders Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev, he appears to be winning more friends at FIFA’s top table. Three FIFA Ex-Co members have come out in support of the US bid – the only country to have such backing. Qatari Mohamed Bin Hammam, president of the Asian Football Confederation, can wield influence to win support for Qatar 2022. Stinging criticism from FIFA vice president Jack Warner over England’s handbag gifts to the wives of Ex-Co members in October hurt its cause but England 2018 have been making positive headlines recently out of pressing the flesh of members such as Nigeria’s Amos Adamu.

Cost/Funding Resources
Russia and Qatar are sinking serious money into their campaigns – the former has a $40m bid budget and the Gulf nation $186m to spend. Both also promise significant investment in their stadia and transport infrastructure. England certainly has less need to splash the cash on sprucing up its venues in the candidate host cities but there was a shortfall in government funding for the bid. CEO Andy Anson has nevertheless reached his £15.5 million ($25 million) funding target after each of the 12 successful applicant host cities committed £250,000. There are signs that this fighting fund might be exceeded in the coming months with sponsorship deals lined up.

Government and Public Support
Financial guarantees and overwhelming governmental support from the Russian and Australian governments elevates them above the other bids in this category. Blatter was given assurances about the government’s backing for the Russian bid during his talks with Medvedev and bid leader Vitaly Mutko last month. Australian PM Kevin Rudd met Blatter in Zurich last July and has consistently demonstrated his administration’s commitment; the bid secured $41 million of government funding. The Holland-Belgium bid has good government support. The British government only offered a £2.5million ($4 million) loan for the bid campaign, although PM Gordon Brown signed funding guarantees worth £300 million for the project.

International Public Relations
Qatar have been the most active on the global stage in recent months, sponsoring the CAF Congress in an exclusive deal, impressing in their dealings with media during the Soccerex Convention in Cape Town and entertaining guests at the Brazil v England international friendly last autumn. The bid campaigns of its nine rivals gathered steam during the Africa Cup of Nations in Angola. Spain-Portugal are marked down as they do not even have a bid website. David Beckham remains a key asset for England 2018 in the months ahead. Holland-Belgium needs to work on raising its profile and media relations; it is not as pro-active as some of its competitors, notably England and Russia, in sending out press releases and statements. Japan are also to be found wanting on this front, while Indonesia’s bid PR is extremely poor.

Venue Plans
England is the runaway leader in this category thanks to the country’s existing modern stadia infrastructure that is unmatched anywhere else in world football. The 12 candidate host cities have made over £300m worth of financial guarantees towards a World Cup in England if the bid succeeds. Of the 17 stadiums in the bid book, eight are Premier League venues. Overall, they provide a mix of iconic venues, expansion projects and new builds. Spain-Portugal, Holland-Belgium and the USA already boast some world-class football stadia but they have more to do to bring their candidate venues up to scratch to meet FIFA standards. Australia drops points because of uncertainties in funding some stadia and the bid team’s impasse in negotiations with rival football codes over the use of their venues.

Security
The threat of terror attacks is a consideration for the staging of all international sports events. Detailed security plans from each of the nations will feature in their bid books to FIFA. Russia loses ground here following the bomb blast that derailed a train running between Moscow and St Petersburg last November killing 26 people. Indonesia’s well-documented terrorist attacks, mainly by militant Islamic organizations, present a big challenge for the hosting of any major sport event in the country. Hotel bombings in Jakarta last July killed nine people.

Transport/Accommodation
The US bid tops the ranking for a transport system that makes getting places easy. The European bids, with the exception of Russia, can count on modern transport infrastructures that would not require significant upgrading as well as plentiful hotels to accommodate World Cup visitors. Transport is a problem for Russia, with congestion in Moscow one issue and distances between cities and venues a major challenge. Under the bid concept, there are five clusters of cities. Bid officials claim it’s a compact plan with all candidate host cities being within 2,000 km of Moscow and modern transport links between each. Providing enough quality accommodation in Moscow and in many other cities is also a concern.

Legacy
Russia and Qatar have the most to gain from staging the 2018 or 2022 World Cup. It would be a first for both countries, and a historic decision for the Middle East. There are also sporting, infrastructure and social legacies for Indonesia and Australia. With the fledgling A-League expanding and attendances growing, FIFA would spur further development in bringing the World Cup to the shores of Australia where football is a mass participation sport. The US bid has yet to demonstrate the legacy benefits of staging a World Cup there. Likewise, this is the weakest aspect of England’s World Cup bid.

Written by World Football Insider editor Mark Bisson (mark@worldfootballinsider.com)
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